Donald Trump is heading into an electoral minefield ahead of the midterm elections on November 3, 2026, as Republicans face the serious prospect of losing their majority in the House of Representatives, with the potential loss of the Senate also on the table. According to analysts cited by Vedomosti, the president's low popularity and the economy represent the main issues threatening the ruling party's electoral position, while simultaneously limiting Trump's scope to advance his agenda.
The Republicans of US President Donald Trump are expected to lose their majority in the House of Representatives following the November 3 elections, while losing control of the Senate is also considered possible, said Charlie Cook, founder of the Cook Political Report, one of the most authoritative organizations for political analysis. Historically, the sitting president's party almost always loses seats in the House of Representatives during midterm elections, while typically maintaining its positions in the Senate.
However, there have been instances where the president's political allies lost their majorities in both chambers of Congress following midterms: in 1918, 1946, 1954, 1994, and 2006. Even in the event that Republicans lose only the House, this will likely complicate the advancement of the administration's primary initiatives and key reforms, as all legislative procedures regarding taxation and the federal budget originate in the House.
Trump and the economy pressure Republicans
Republican chances in the House are constrained by both Trump's low popularity and the poor approval ratings of the party's candidates, political scientist and US specialist Malek Dudakov told Vedomosti. He pointed out that, according to aggregator Real Clear Politics, only 38.7% of citizens support the US president. The expert noted that the core problem for Republicans is the economy and their failure to articulate to voters how they intend to address it. "There is very little time left before the election, and it is unlikely that the Republican Party will be able to turn the tide in its favor within this timeframe," Dudakov stated regarding the upcoming midterms.
House loss anticipated
The impending loss of the House of Representatives majority by the Republicans is a predictable outcome, said Pavel Koshkin, senior research fellow at the Institute for US and Canadian Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, according to Koshkin, another important question remains: to what extent Republicans, even from a minority position, will be able after the elections to periodically block the Democratic agenda.
According to Koshkin, if the margin in seats is narrow, this is bound to happen, just as it currently occurs with the Democrats. "It seems to me unlikely that the Democrats will win by a large margin. In addition to taking control of the House of Representatives, they may also secure a slim Senate majority. Consequently, Trump will retain the ability to exert political influence," Koshkin emphasized.
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